[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Surged Significantly on December 29, Finance Minister Stated Fiscal Policy Will Vigorously Boost Consumption Next Year

SMM Nickel December 26 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The National Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 27 to 28. The conference pointed out that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue to be implemented in 2026. Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an stated that fiscal policy will vigorously boost consumption next year. Efforts will be made to deeply implement the special action to boost consumption, continue to allocate funds to support the trade-in of consumer goods, and adjust and optimize the subsidy scope and standards.

(2) The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that from January to November, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide reached 6,626.86 billion yuan, up 0.1% YoY. Among industrial enterprises above the designated size from January to November, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 2,008.36 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 4,956.56 billion yuan, down 0.4% YoY.

Spot Market:

On December 29, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 127,700-135,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 131,700 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,200-7,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 7,200 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums/discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -200-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2602) surged significantly during the night session before pulling back. In the morning session, it hovered at highs around the 128,000 yuan/mt level. By the midday close, it was quoted at 128,570 yuan/mt, up 1.40%.

The nickel market is currently in a fierce contest between "strong expectations" and "weak reality." In the short term, the price center of nickel is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend driven by market sentiment. However, upside potential remains capped by high inventory and weak demand fundamentals. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.